Kelowna Real Estate Market News

BC Real Estate Housing Forecast Q1 2019

A question I get asked regularly is what are prices going to do in the Kelowna Real Estate Market in 2019.


In the latest Real Estate forecast from the BC Real Estate Association, they are forecasting a fairly flat year, for Kelowna and the Central Okanagan Real Estate Market.


Here is their latest report below.


Multiple Listing Service (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to increase by 2.1% to 80,000 units this year, after recording 78,345 residential sales in 2018. MLS® residential sales are forecast to increase a further 6.9% to 85,500 units in 2020. The 10-year average for MLS® residential sales in the province is 85,800 units. The negative shock to affordability and purchasing power created by the B20 stress test on mortgage borrowers is expected to continue constraining housing demand in the province this year.


The BC economy continues to be highly supportive of housing demand. After five consecutive years of above-trend economic growth, the province now boasts the lowest unemployment rate in the country. However, with many sectors near full employment, job growth is expected to slow over the next two years, being more closely tied to a gradual expansion of the labour force. In addition, the policy-induced slowdown in housing demand will negatively impact home renovations as they are highly correlated with home sales. As a result, Real GDP growth is expected to slow to 2.6% this year.


The lower level of housing demand has contributed to an increase in total active residential listings across the province. Most BC regions have now experienced a shift in market conditions from sellers’ to balanced and buyers’ categories. In addition, the record number of new homes currently under construction is expected to provide a significant expansion of the housing stock, alleviating any supply shortages in the near term.


Markets conditions are expected to provide little upward pressure on home prices this year, with the average annual residential price forecast to remain essentially unchanged, albeit up 0.5% to 716,100. Modest improvement in consumer demand is expected to unfold over the next two years as households further adjust to the mortgage stress test. 


Kind Regards


Trish Cenci




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