Kelowna Real Estate Market News

The pace of home sales in the province has slowed in recent months but an unprecedented start to the year still has BC on track for a record-breaking year.


An expected second-half slowdown has arrived, prompted by eroding affordability and a tightening of mortgage qualification rules. However, with the BC economy on track for very strong growth this year and next, along with the eventual return of normal migration flows, home sales are anticipated to remain well above long-run average levels into 2022.


Canadian mortgage rates have remained stable after rising from all-time lows earlier this year. At an average of just 2.14 per cent for a 5-year fixed rate and under 1.5 per cent for a variable rate, borrowing costs continue to be highly supportive of housing market activity. That said, the implementation of a new stress test rate, which is now the higher of a borrower’s contract rate plus 200 basis points and 5.25 per cent for both insured and uninsured mortgages, has likely taken some...

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The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) has now released its 2021 Second Quarter Housing Forecast.


Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to rise 33.6 per cent to 125,600 units this year, after recording 94,013 sales in 2020. In 2022, MLS® residential sales are forecast to pull back 20.3 per cent to 100,150 units.


“Home sales across the province are on pace to shatter previous records,” said Brendon Ogmundson, BCREA Chief Economist.


“However, there are early signs that markets are calming from the frenetic pace of recent months and could balance out over the second half of this year.”


"The trajectory of home sales in the second half of 2021 and for 2022 will be highly dependent on the evolution of Canadian mortgage rates. Fixed mortgage rates have started to rise from a record-low average of 1.8 per cent to just over 2 per cent and could rise further as the Bank of Canada tapers its bond purchases through...

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The BC Real Estate Association has now published its Q3 Housing Report.


Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to rise by 6.5 per cent to 82,380 units this year, after recording 77,351 residential sales in 2019. MLS® residential sales are forecast to increase by 17.6 per cent to 96,860 units in 2021.

 


“The outlook for the BC housing market is much brighter following a surprisingly strong recovery,” said Brendon Ogmundson, BCREA Chief Economist. “We expect home sales will sustain this momentum into 2021, aided by record-low mortgage rates and a recovering economy.”  


With home sales more than fully recovered and now above pre-COVID-19 levels, combined with a decline in the supply of re-sale listings driven by the pandemic, many markets are now seeing sharply rising average prices despite a weak provincial economy. We are forecasting the provincial MLS® average price to finish the year up...

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The BC Real Estate Association has now issued its third-quarter Housing Forecast.


In their opinion, the BC housing market appears to be stabilizing after a year and a half of volatility induced by the B20 mortgage stress test and other policy measures. Total MLS® unit sales are on pace to finish 2019 at just under 75,000 units, a 5 per cent decline from 2018. Home sales posted a sharp rebound over the summer, buttressed by strong employment growth and a decline in mortgage rates. We expect that most markets will normalize around long-term averages in 2020, with total provincial sales reaching 82,710 units.


Growth in the BC economy is projected to slow for a second consecutive year in 2019. A policy-driven slowdown in housing activity, a challenging global trade environment and cautious consumer spending have provincial real GDP on pace to grow at about 2.2 per cent this year. Our baseline forecast is for slightly improved economic growth at 2.5 per cent in 2020, as spending on LNG projects...

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The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) has now released its 2018 Third Quarter Housing Forecast Update.


Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to decline 21 per cent to 82,000 units this year, after recording 103,768 residential sales in 2017. MLS® residential sales are forecast to increase by 8 per cent to 88,700 units in 2019. The 10-year average for MLS® residential sales in the province is 84,800 units.


The BC housing market is grappling with a sharp decline in affordability caused by tough B20 stress test rules for conventional mortgages, said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. While these rules have had a negative effect on housing demand across the country, the impact has been especially severe in BCs large urban centres because of already strained housing affordability.


In spite of the policy-driven downturn in housing demand, strong fundamentals continue to underpin the market. Demographics are highly...

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The BC Real Estate Association has published its forecast for the BC Real Estate Market for 2018 through to 2019 today.

 

Snapshot of their Kelowna Real Estate Market Forecast

- Fall in unit sales for the Kelowna Real Estate Market and Central Okanagan of 2.8% & 0.6% in 2019.


- Average MLS® prices will rise 6.7% in 2018 and 2.6% in 2019. 

 

Read the full summary below-:

 

BC Housing Forecast Update March 2018

 


Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to decline 8.6 percent to 94,855 units this year, after recording 103,763 residential sales in 2017. MLS® residential sales are forecast to edge back a further 1 percent to 94,025 units in 2019. Housing demand is expected to remain above the 10-year average of 84,800 units in 2020. Strong economic performance and favourable demographics in BC are underpinning housing demand. However, more stringent mortgage qualification rules, rising interest rates and...

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