Well, it's now June and the Kelowna Real Estate Market is in full swing - or is it? It certainly doesn't feel like it.
Overall, the May Real Estate market has been one of the quieter ones I have experienced, in a while. For example, there are usually lots of Parents looking for Condos, ready for the Students attending UBCO, and I have only just started to see inquiries and sales, with more showings in the last week.
There is certainly plenty of choice in the U District, and Condo sales in Quail Ridge, also seem subdued.
In other areas of the market, it remains 'patchy', as Buyers are convinced prices are going to soften further.
Certainly, at the 'higher-end' of the market, they could be right, but I do sense that some Sellers will wait, rather than list lower.
Kelowna & Central Okanagan Real Estate Sales May 2019.
- Sales were up 21.8% last month.
- Single-Family Homes sales up 19.4%
- Strata sales up 22.8%.
When we compare the numbers to last year, it feels like we're having a 'deja-vu' moment!
Compared to last year -
- Overall sales were down 0.01%
- Single-Family Home sales up 0.01%
- Strata sales were the same%.
Total levels of Inventory are rising in the Central Okanagan.
As at June 1, 2019 -:
Residential 1590 units
Condo - 674 units
Town Homes - 447 units
Inventory levels continue to rise in all sectors.
Months of inventory
Single Family - 5.55 months down from 6.08 last month up from 4.78 last year.
Condos - 5.52 months down from 6.19 last month and up from 3.45 last year.
Town Homes 4.66 months down from 5.41 last month and up from 4.38 last year.
All sectors showing a broadly balanced market overall.
May 2019, Median Prices, compared to May 2018-:
Residential Home $665,000 down 4.1%.
Condo Price is $324,500 down 3.1%.
Town Homes $461,950 up 10.5%.
My current thoughts on the Kelowna Real Estate Market?
One of the sources I like to read is the Report from Bryan Yu, Deputy Chief Economist at Central 1 Credit Union. In his Resale Market Housing Outlook for BC 2019-2021, he continues to point to the combination of the Federal B-20 Mortgage Stress-Test, Provincial measures, which include, Speculation Tax, expanded Foreign Buyers Tax & other measures curtailing demand.
I'm sure it is quite a shock for Metro Vancouver Home Owners to see Home prices falling the way they are. West Vancouver & the west side of Vancouver City have been hit by as much as 20%, particularly in the multi-million range.
This is having a knock-on effect in our Real Estate Market, as there is a much lower 'appetite' for Buyers of Recreational and Retirement homes in our area.
The continued downturn in the Alberta Market is also affecting recreational property sales here.
According to Bryan Yu, "Economic and Demographic trends will continue to support demand for housing, particularly in Urban areas."
It seems it is just taking everyone longer to adapt to the Mortgage Stress test, where Buyers are having to save higher deposits or wait for their incomes to rise. For Sellers, hopefully, that points to some pent-up demand in the future.
Certainly, Interest Rates seem to be more settled than they have for a while, so no real worries there, for now.
Overall, Central 1 predicts the fall in home sales will end in the first half of 2019, and they forecast a 10% reduction in sales for the Central Okanagan this year.
They are predicting prices will continue to edge lower in our area. Below is their BC Median Price Graph for the BC Region.
Looking at this graph, it would appear that they are predicting we have gone through the worst of our Price drop in the Okanagan, and it will be flatter pricing into 2020 and 2021.