August 2019 was a really beautiful month in the Okanagan Valley, with sunny days, no smoke and the temperatures being just perfect for BBQ's, lazing on the Beach, Boating, Golfing, Hiking & Biking!

This definitely had an effect on Kelowna Real Estate activity!

Buyers seemed very focused on enjoying the Summer and seemed to press 'pause' on their house-hunting searches, as Agents reported the number of viewings and sales more subdued.

Kelowna & Central Okanagan Real Estate Sales August 2019.

	Date	Total	Single Family	Strata	Lots	Manuf
	Aug 19	474	225	207	24	18
	Jul 19	525	254	225	15	31
	Jun 19	465	244	182	14	25
	May 19	530	265	221	19	25
	Aug 18	443	204	191	16	22

Last month-:

- Total Sales were down 9.7% last month.

- Single-Family Homes sales down 11.4%

- Strata sales down 8%.

Compared to last year sales have shown a positive improvement.

- Overall sales were up 7%

- Single-Family Home sales up 10.3%

- Strata sales were up 8.4%.

Inventory Levels August 2019

Single Family & Bare Land Strata Residential 1407 units up 4.4% from 1348.

Condo - 596 units up 8.1% from 551.

Town Homes - 373 units down 2.9% from 384.

Spotlight on Single-Family Homes

Breaking down the Single Family Home Sales -:

Number of Sales

0 - $450k           2019    21     2018   22

$450k - $699k   2019   100    2018   97

$700k - $999k   2019    74     2018   65

$1m plus -         2019    30     2018   20 

Price Range         Number of Listings     Days on Mkt     Months of Inventory 

$450k - $699        298 (2018 - 410)          36 (2018 - 38)     3.73 (2018 - 4.71)

$700k - $999k      412 (2018 - 357)          46 (2018 - 50)     6.75 (2018 - 6.49)

$1m plus                  397 (2018 - 322)         103 (208 - 82)    17.26 (2018 - 21.47)

I decided to break-down the numbers for Single-Family into 3 categories, as this gives us a great example of how different areas of the market are performing in different ways.

In the more affordable area of the market between $450,000 & $699,000, inventory has fallen 27% since this time last year. Inventory is selling much quicker than the market average, and there are just under 4 months of inventory. This is indicating Sellers Market conditions.

Based on these figures, we should expect prices in this sector of the market to start rising.

In the $700,000 to $999,000 range, inventory is rising (up 15.4%) and last month 412 units represented a new 'peak' compared to the last 12 months. Days on the market are falling, but this could be explained by more Owners re-listing rather than letting their homes look 'stale' on the MLS® system, as months of inventory is rising, with 6.75 months of inventory - representing balanced to Buyers market conditions.

This is indicating we may still see some downward pressure on prices.

In the $1million, inventory is up 23.2%, days on market are rising, but months of inventory is falling. It remains a Buyers Market.

 

So what next for Kelowna Real Estate Market?

Our Real Estate Market is continuing to be affected by the Mortgage Stress-Test, with Financing still being one of the key reasons deals are falling apart.

Buyers not being able to sell their current homes is also proving to be an issue.

I do expect September and October months to be busier, particularly if the weather stays good. Buyers tend to re-focus their efforts once the Schools go back and the City is not so hectic with Tourists.

Another factor, will be whether the 'green shoots of recovery' continue in the Lower Mainland Market. If so, I expect Real Estate in Kelowna and the Central Okanagan to be on their shopping list. 

The TD Bank reported sales in Vancouver rose 26.4% in July 2019, so in their opinion, they feel the Vancouver Market is through the worst of it, with most markets returning to balance markets or better and prices are therefore more likely to increase rather than decrease in the next year.

Economic conditions are a factor to continue to watch, as they may affect overall consumer confidence. Lower sales in the BC Car and Furniture Sectors are indicators of reduced consumer confidence. Wood and Paper products are struggling following lower US demand, which has resulted in some permanent Mill closures, which will affect home sales throughout the Province.

We do seem to have seen fewer Asian Buyers, particularly from China, as getting money out of the country has been proving more problematic and their economy has not been as buoyant.

On the positive side, solid job and population growth in our Province, all point to continuing housing demand and relatively stable Mortgage Rates should have a positive knock-on effect in the Kelowna and Central Okanagan area.

That's it for this month's update!

If you would like to receive specific information about your own buying and selling needs in the area please feel free to call or email me and my current listings can be viewed at  https://www.trishcenci.com/mylistings.html

Kind Regards

Trish Cenci